Prior to this, a series of policies implemented by the Fed, including quantitative easing, have pushed up the market’s inflation expectations. In recent days, despite the slight increase in US economic recovery expectations and the slight decline in U.S. long-term interest rates, the 10-year Treasury bond interest rate has soared by 40% since March, showing that investors are concerned about the falling U.S. U.S. precious metalsdollar, rising inflation and the U.S. crisis. Concerns about the lack of stamina for post-economic growth.
In the near term, the non-agricultural employment report released by the United States last week performed well. The November non-agricultural employment report released by the US Department of Labor last Friday showed that the US unemployment rate dropped sharply to 8.6% in November, the lowest level since March 2009. At the same time, the number of non-agricultural employment in the United States increased by 120 thousand in November; the number of non-agricultural employment in October was revised to increase by 100,000, the initial value increased by 80,000; the number of non-agricultural employment in September was revised to increase by 210,000, the initial value For an increase of 158,000. Therefore, the rapid decline in the unemployment rate in the United States in November and the sharp increase in non-agricultural data in the first two months show that the labor market in the United States continues to pick up and the US economy is recovering vigorously. This also means that the dollar may strengthen in the future, which is bad news for gold prices.
Xu Yiyi, fund manager of Huaan Gold, the largest gold ETF fund, said: Now the market's attention is focused on the fiscal policy that will be announced in the coming weeks. We believe that if these policies increase inflation expectations, gold will decline or consolidate for a period of time in the future.
Norman pointed out that the price of gold deviated from its 30-week trend line (the trend line formed by the 30-week lows) by more than 20%. This has only occurred three times since 2007. The last two were in March 2008 and December 2009. , And all fell sharply thereafter. The price of gold deviated from its 30-week trend line by 21% on Wednesday, and from the weekly chart, the price of gold is currently outside the upper band of the 20-period Bollinger Band, indicating that gold is technically overbought.
The price of gold pawns is mainly based on the pricing of gold exchanges, and the discount rate is generally above 90%. Xing Hongbao, a senior pawnbroker at China Pawnshop, said that since July, the price of gold has steadily climbed. The price of pawns has been adjusted nine times, and it has exceeded the historical peak of 310 yuan/gram, an increase of 4.4%. Gold monetization business is also gaining significantly after entering July, especially in the last week, some consumers who bought gold at low prices have sold physical gold in their hands. Only the average daily business volume of gold monetization business in one store in Chongwenmen There are more than ten orders.
Alan Gayle, a senior strategist at RidgeWorth Asset Management, said: The argument that currency deU.S. precious metalspreciation and easing measures can support the price of gold is indeed more reasonable, but investors who are bullish on gold still have many details to verify. Now on the market There are still many doubts about the prospects of gold prices. Whether the price of gold has reached a short-term low still needs to be considered comprehensively.
However, there has been no clear data on how much gold reserves of European and American central banks participate in carry trades. The aforementioned investment bankers explained that there are loopholes in the gold accounting standards. For example, European and American central banks can include gold swaps or gold carry transactions in their own gold reserves. After all, the central bank will only lend out gold reserves, and gold ownership still belongs to central banks. .