The drop in the price of gold for two consecutive trading days this week is mainly due to the suppression of profit settlement. As the InternatioPrecious Metal Fundnal Monetary Fund lowered its economic growth forecasts for the United States and Japan, and Goldman Sachs successively issued reports that it was short on crude oil, the price of New York crude oil futures fell more than 6% in two trading days.
On September 21, the exchange rate of the U.S. dollar to the renminbi was 6.7584 yuan, breaking the 6.77 mark, setting a new high in the past 16 months. Recently, the RMB exchange rate has continued to strengthen. Since the May low, in just over three months, the RMB exchange rate has rebounded by more than 4,000 basis points and appreciated by nearly 6%.
According to reports, this investor named Tao Xi is now a senior trader in a hedge fund company. He has been holding gold put options since last summer. He did not close his position until gold fell further in recent weeks. So get huge returns. According to hedge fund traders, according to industry practice, his bonus may exceed $10 million.
In 2009, the price of gold rose from US$879 at the beginning of the year to US$1,226, an increase of 39.3%, the largest annual increase since 2000. At the end of the year, some experts suggested that the focus of future gold investment should still be the change in the US dollar exchange rate as the most important reference.
From the perspective of economic data, there is no doubt that the U.S. economy has shown a strong recovery momentum in the past first quarter, laying a foundation for the Fed to slow down its bond purchases. This is the main reason for the weak performance of gold prices in the first quarter. In the coming second and third quarters, in the context of the continued recovery of the US economy, the shadow of the Fed's reduction of bond purchases will surely continue to loom over the gold market. Therefore, in the next few months, gold prices will continue to fall under pressure.
But from a short-term perspective, it is still unclear whPrecious Metal Fundether gold prices will strengthen in the future. Wellxin chief analyst Yang Yijun said that since the price of gold has not completely got rid of the technical dilemma, investors should not be overly optimistic about the fundamentals. He said that he is inclined to predict that the gold price will continue to show complex fluctuations. However, in the short term, as the price of gold broke through last week's rebound high on July 5, the short-term downward pressure has been largely reversed, so it is not appropriate to be too bearish in the short term. However, in terms of the moving average system and operating trend, the price of gold has not escaped the periodic decline.
Judging from past laws, gold consumption will enter a climax every year after October. During the National Day Golden Week just past, news from Beijing and Chongqing all showed that gold sales rose by more than 30%. Among them, investment gold bars are the most sought after. During the entire long holiday, there were several purchases of gold bullion investment of more than one million yuan, and some high-profile customers even bought 95 kilograms of investment gold bullion at a time, worth 35 million yuan. Beijing Guohua Shopping Center also has a one-time purchase of 20,000 grams of investment gold bars, with a total value of more than 7 million yuan. In Guangzhou, shops have stopped selling spot gold since September. Buyers are required to place an order in advance and pick it up after two weeks.
The necessity of stop loss Volatility and unpredictability are the most fundamental characteristics of the market. This is the basis for the existence of the market and the reason for the risks in trading. This is an unchangeable feature. There is never certainty in trading. All analysis and forecasting are only a possibility. Trading based on this possibility is naturally uncertain. Uncertain behavior must have measures to control the expansion of its risk and stop loss That's it. Stop loss is naturally produced by human beings in the process of trading. It is not deliberately made. It is an instinctive reaction of investors to protect themselves. The uncertainty of the market creates the necessity and importance of stop loss. Successful investors may have different trading methods, but stop loss is a common feature that guarantees their success. Soros, the world's investment guru, said that investment itself has no risk, only an out-of-control investment has risk. Learn to stop losses and never fall in love with losses. Stop loss is far more important than profit, because at any time capital preservation is the first and profit is the second. It is quite effective to establish a reasonable stop loss principle. The core of the prudent stop loss principle is to prevent losses from continuing to expand. Why stop loss is so difficult to understand the meaning of stop loss is important, however, this is not the final result. In fact, there are many examples of investors setting a stop loss but not executing it. In the market, the tragedy of being swept away is happening almost every day.
In terms of gold futures, we will further attract institutional investors. On the basis of the current seven Chinese banks as members, we will study domestic commercial banks with foreign investment backgrounds to become members; at the same time, according to the needs of market investors, market positioning and long-term development needs , Explore and study gold night trading business. Wang Lihua said in his keynote speech.