Cheng Xiaoyong believes that the dovish remarks have largely calmed the market’s confidence and suppressed the expectation of the Fed to raise interest Precious metals market valuerates too quickly. In fact, with Bernanke’s departure in January next year, the Fed’s internal dovish power is weakening and the price of gold From the perspective of the height and continuity of the rebound, it is estimated that the gold price rebound will soon die out this week, and $1,300 may be the staged peak of this round of rebound.
In August, the trading scale of industrial products represented by non-ferrous metals and energy and chemical industries generally increased. Among them, wire rods increased by 3 times month-on-month, and copper, aluminum, and zinc increased by about 1 time. The scale of agricultural product futures trading was mixed. Among them, soybeans more than doubled month-on-month, while natural rubber, cotton, early indica rice, rapeseed oil, soybean meal and other varieties declined.
The latest data released by the World Gold Council show that as of June, global gold ETFs have seen net inflows for 7 consecutive months, setting a record. The total amount of global gold ETFs (Exchange Traded Funds) increased by 104 tons (approximately US$5.6 billion, equivalent to 2.7% of the total asset management scale) that month, which brought its total holdings to a record high of 3621 tons.
Ireland’s debt problem has once again become the focus of the market. The spokesperson of the Irish opposition Labour Party said on Thursday that it would oppose the European Union’s IMF’s Irish aid plan when the Parliament held a vote next Wednesday. This caused market concerns to rise sharply. At the same time, the international rating agency Fitch ) Announced the downgrade of Ireland’s sovereign rating.
The development of the European debt crisis is maintained in the handling of the Italian debt crisis. Italy is the third largest economy in the euro zone. The volume of Italian debt is not comparable to that of Greece. Most of the Italian national debt holders are central banks, commercial banks, insurance companies, and pension funds. Problems with Italian national debt will lead to bad debts of many commercial banks’ bond assets and turbulence in the international banking and financial system. Xi Jianhua said that at present, the Fed is testing whether the capital adequacy ratio of U.S. banks can cope with the financial market fluctuations caused by the worst outcome of the European debt crisis, which proves that the market has been carefully evaluating the worst outcome of the European debt crisis (that is, the disintegration of the euro zone). risk. We have noticed that after the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in 2008, the financial market suffered a shock, and the price of gold fell sharply along with commodities, but then gold quickly rebounded. Once the Eurozone disintegrates, it does not rule out a sharp decline in the international gold market in a short period of time.
Reporter Xue Liang reported that in order to fill the trading time gap between the domestic gold market and the internationaPrecious metals market valuel market, to achieve the domestic and international convergence of gold prices, avoid price risks and improve the structure of the domestic gold market, the gold exchange officially launched Friday night trading. The transaction was completed by Ms. Yang, a customer of Industrial Bank.
At present, domestic gold processing plants are concentrated in Shenzhen, and gold imports are mainly in Shenzhen. Foreign banks, miners, and traders mostly use Hong Kong as a transit point to export gold to the mainland, and supply and demand are geographically matched. The aforementioned trader stated that, therefore, although the previous major banks have also built several Shanghai Gold Exchange warehouses that can handle gold imports, the quantity has not reached expectations.
The minutes of the much-watched Fed’s July monetary policy meeting were released as scheduled at 2 a.m. Beijing time on the 22nd. The minutes of this meeting are for the detailed explanation of the July Monetary Policy Meeting of the Federal Reserve Open Market Committee held at the end of last month. It will discuss and study the current operation of the world's largest economy, the risks it faces, and the ways to deal with it in the future. In addition, as the market generally expects that the Fed may begin to reduce bond purchases in September, it will gradually withdraw from quantitative easing. Therefore, the last minutes before September received extremely high attention from all parties in the market. If the Fed’s attitude is hawkish, the US dollar will be greatly boosted. On the contrary, gold and non-US currencies will maintain an upward pattern. After the announcement at 2 o'clock Beijing time, gold showed a trend of falling first and then rising. The minutes show that some members of the Federal Reserve still hold different views on the timetable for withdrawing from QE. However, the general direction of QE has not changed, and the tone of reducing quantitative easing before the end of this year and ending quantitative easing around the middle of next year is still maintained. Overall, the minutes tend to be slightly reduced. The market reacted immediately and the dollar rose 0.2% against the yen. Gold fell to near the US time low of $1362. But the market quickly realized that according to the minutes, the Fed seemed more hopeful to draw conclusions about scale reduction based on the performance of future economic data. Moreover, the line between the lines also reflects that compared with earlier times, Fed officials' views on the economic outlook have not improved, but have become slightly pessimistic. Subsequently, gold rose rapidly from a low point, and once touched an intraday high near 1379, and finally basically stabilized with the overnight close. Asian markets were generally lower on Thursday affected by the Fed's minutes. MIAPJ0000PUS fell 0.9% to a 6-week low. The South Korean stock market fell about 1%. The Nikkei 225 fell 1.1%. The Australian market is also affected. Its main stock index fell 1.3%, and the Australian dollar against the US dollar fell 100 basis points from yesterday’s opening to close at 0.8970. The current price of gold is above 1360, which is the lower edge of the consolidation range that occurred during the previous decline. Since the Fed has not made special care for QE in every direction, gold may fluctuate slightly in this range in the near future. The range is 1350-1385 US dollars. According to the quality of the economic data of major economies, investors can appropriately sell high and buy low within the range. After jumping out of the range of shocks, take advantage of the trend. The upper resistance is 1385/1400/1420.